Substitution timing and the sweet science behind it can significantly influence the outcome of a match. Most coaches make substitutions randomly, leaving small percentages on the table for those that are smarter and see it tactically.
First and foremost, it is important to always have substitutions available late in games to be able to pivot tactically. This is easier since the change from three subs per game to five (with three substitution slots). A good bench will also be composed intelligently to remain versatile with tactical changes—whether closing out a lead or becoming more aggressive to get a goal back. As we see with Southgate’s England, patience can also be a virtue here, with the aim to make changes later in games so as to give less time for an opponent to react. The ideal scenario is one where an opponent has already made all of their substitutions, as the likelihood of getting the next substitution correct is at its greatest. Consider also that tournament Football can afford later changes when drawing or holding a narrow lead with the likelihood of extra time.
In terms of timings, besides the obvious, such as taking off an injured player, the most important time for a change is to cut momentum. It is one of the simplest breaks of play and simultaneously gives time for instructions to be imparted. If the flow of the game is going against a team, it can help to make a substitution to ice the opponent.
It can also be smart to use a time such as an attacking corner to make such a change. After a quick corner, the next best option is to extend the time period before the kick to add pressure on the defence. This creates a moment of additional focus and can lead to lapses in the defensive setup, giving your team an edge.
Beyond these strategies, bringing on fresh legs where players are fatigued becomes more useful the later in the game we get. Fatigue can significantly impact a player’s performance, and fresh substitutes can exploit tired opposition players, often leading to game-changing moments. This is especially crucial in the final stages of the game when physical and mental fatigue set in. Typically we see attacking players with this in mind.
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